Dodgers offense change their approach when Runners are in scoring position. This approach lead them to the World Champions!

The turbulent 2020 season came to a close with the Dodgers winning the World Series. In recent years, the Dodgers have often come within a whisker of winning the World Series, but what has changed this season compared to last?

The addition of Mookie Betts, who has been MVP-caliber in his first season with the team? The return of Corey Seager and the breakthrough of Will Smith? All of these are probably important factors, but I think the biggest factor is the Dodgers’ ability to use different approaches depending on the situation.

So what is the Dodgers’ approach?

Many Dodgers hitters seem to choose different approaches depending on whether they have runners in scoring position or not. When there are no runners in scoring position, they aggressively look for home runs. On the other hand, when the runners are in a scoring position, they do not go for HR but prioritizes contact.

The first time I thought about this approach was in the NLCS against the Braves. I got the impression that the Dodgers’ offense could score runs off HRs, but they were better at creating big innings by getting hits. I examined this impression by looking at their hitting performance in different situations. As a result, I found something very interesting.

I was particularly interested in the difference between the Dodgers’ hitting performance with and without runners on base. I obtained the data mainly from Fangraphs. I focused on K% because I thought it would reflect the difference in hitters’ approach to some extent.

The following graph shows the K% of 30 MLB teams’ offenses this season, subtracting the K% when runners are in scoring position from the K% when there are no runners on base. The graph shows that the lower the “K% with runners in scoring position” is compared to the “K% without runners in scoring position,” the larger the value.

To give you an actual example, the Dodgers’ K% with no runners on base is 23.30% while their K% with runners in scoring position is 14.20%, so the former minus the latter is 9.10%.

The graph shows that the Dodgers stand out in this number when compared to other teams. The Dodgers ranked first out of 30 teams with 9.10%, clearly outstanding compared to the second-place Rays with 5.60%. The average for the 30 teams was 2.05%.

A similar graph was created based on the 2019 team-by-team hitting stats, with the Padres in first place at 4.10% and the Dodgers stuck in 17th place at 1.80%. In other words, the Dodgers’ offense did not show a significant difference in K% between “when runners are in scoring position” and “when there are no runners in scoring position” in 2019. Incidentally, the average for the 30 teams was 1.79%, about the same level as the Dodgers.

I suspect that the Dodgers changed their approach in 2020, depending on whether they had runners on base or not. Of course, at the player level, they may have been using this approach before 2020, but the 9.10% difference in K% by situation suggests that the team as a whole was communicating and practicing this approach.

How do the Dodgers use different approaches?
Let’s take a look at how the Dodgers use different approaches. First, when there are no runners on base (K% is high). There is a certain correlation between the number of HRs and the number of strikeouts, and I think the Dodgers are aggressively targeting HRs, which is why they strike out so much.

But what about when there are runners in scoring position? In general, hitters who make good contact tend to have a lower K%. Since the Dodgers’ K% is lower when runners are in scoring position, I think the Dodgers are emphasizing contact more than when there are no runners on base.

Speaking of emphasizing contact power, it seems to go against the trend of baseball since the fly-ball revolution. However, this contact refers to so-called hard hits. In other words, it is important to hit the ball hard with the bat, not just hit it with the bat.

According to the official MLB website, a hard hit is one that has a velocity of 95 mph or higher. The beauty of a hard hit is that it has a higher chance of becoming a hit or a HR than if it were not. That’s why the Dodgers’ approach is based on the premise of hitting hard and depending on the situation, they will either go for the HR or focus on contact. In that sense, the idea of the fly ball revolution is still there, but it has been developed further.

The Dodgers’ Hard Hit% in scoring position is 43.2%, which is the highest among the 30 teams.

Why do they use different approaches?
So, why did the Dodgers start aiming for hard hits instead of HRs in scoring position? The first reason I can think of is that the number of pitchers throwing sinkers is on the rise again this season.

There may also be a reason as follows. When a runner is in scoring position, scoring a run by getting a hit is less efficient than scoring a HR. However, since the number of hits is greater than the number of HRs, there are times when the expectation of scoring runs will be higher if you are more conscious of contact depending on the situation rather than aiming for HRs.

When the Red Sox defeated the Dodgers for the World Championship in 2018, the Red Sox offense hit a lot more than just HRs. The player who was at the center of it all was Mookie Betts. He had a high K% in 2020 with no runners on base (18.4%) and a low K% with runners in scoring position (10.6%). Perhaps the addition of Betts has led to a change in the approach of the Dodgers offense.

As an aside, in an interview after the game in which we lost After Game 4 of the World Series, “I didn’t get hit hard. What could I have done? Kenley Jansen commented. The fact that Jansen used the word “hard hit” in his interview makes me think that he is aware of hard hits daily.

I’m not sure if I’m imagining this too much, but in any case, I expect other teams to copy the Dodgers’ approach to hitting next season. And while the record for most HRs in a single season was set last year, I believe that the era is coming when the number of such extreme HR attempts will decrease and players with high contact skills will be reevaluated.

Photo BY Ian D’Andrea